Wondering when national currencies, intimacy, natural childbirth
and Rocky films will go the way of the dodo? Here’s a fun timeline
of extinction events for the 1950-2050 range by futurist and
Trends Book author Richard Watson:
Enterprise prediction markets have been growing in popularity, but face three major hurdles to success: 1) lack of access to all relevant information, 2) regulatory concerns, and 3) adoption / sticky use. As these are resolved, new-age prediction markets will increase in value, diffuse more quickly and make us smarter as a species.
1. Lack of access to relevant information: My big takeaway from Wisdom of the Crowds, the prediction market bible by journalist James Surowiecki, was that a large group of humans can consistently out-predict individuals, but only if all the brains are knowledgable of the given topic area. For example, farmers won’t be great at predicting next year’s fashion colors – that will be left to the those with more direct exposure to the appropriate industry trends.
Prediction market guru Chris Masse points out a similar flaw plaguing most, if not all, enterprise prediction markets: lack of access to ”’experts’ and other ‘business leaders’”. Masse argues that minus this crucial top-level information a company’s internal “prediction markets would be clueless, useless, and worthless.”
Solutions: The obvious but eminently unpalatable solution is for corporations like Google, GE, and Microsoft that already utilize prediction markets to open-up access to more of their top-level data to employees or even the public. This would immediately result in better predictions, but would obviously benefit their numerous cut-throat competitors. It will take some time for big businesses to implement such transparent practices, though I can imagine the right start-ups could successfully implement such an open strategy and then scale.
On the flip side of coin, companies could up the incentives for successful predicting in external but vastly larger markets, essentially throwing more money and brains at the process. They could then make use of the growing # of top rated performers and ideas (would be shocked if they’re not already mining such data). It seems like this will gradually occur as 1) companies increasingly look to the web for ideas, 2) the semantic web and better search makes everyone smarter faster.
Then again, a more immediately plausible middle road could involve bringing on a group of professional predictors, say 40 – 100 diverse individuals, and then give them access to the highest level information. Of course, they would be required to live in a cave and never again communicate with friends or family…
IBM held its Third Annual "Five in Five" which looks at emerging trends as well as what IBM itself is developing in their own labs around the world. Here's the vid.
While previous predictions given by these "Five in Five" releases can be somewhat fanciful (like mind-reading cellphones for instance), this latest list has the refreshing feel of being very near and very possible.
Solar technology will be built into everything
IBM states that within five years we could be seeing thin-film solar technology built into everything around us. This includes sidewalks, driveways, paint, windows and even clothing. Their belief is that thin-film solar will get so cheap that it can be applied everywhere in our lives. It's ability to be flexible also makes it easy to wrap around our daily devices which could benefit from a little extra power boost. It's interesting to think that while some people are clamoring for white asphalt and roofing tiles to reflect the Suns energy and save on lighting, another faction will emerge that will want solar film instead. Of course the question remains: are you going to want to hook a battery up to your clothing?
Your health can be pre-determined
Mapping DNA keeps getting faster and cheaper as the years go along. It only makes sense that very soon people will begin to use that genetic information to look for hereditary traits that could impact your health. In finding out you have a high chance of becoming diabetic, you may try and change your diet to avoid or delay its effects. Basically, it's the movie GATTACA without being able to actually alter the DNA before birth. I wonder how you'll take the news when they tell you that the junk food you so love is literally killing your body and taking years off your life.