2009 promises to be a big year on the media landscape as next stage public adoption of online product will spur tremendous growth. Here are 5 things to watch for:
- Tweet! Twitter explodes and joins the parade - MySpace --> YouTube --> Facebook --> Twitter - as an elite meme that everybody has heard of. In the process it requisitely transforms into a corporate tool and attracts an older demographic cohort.
- Online Advertising Hangs Tough Despite all of the end times rhetoric, online advertising actually increases 10%. The efficiency of the web is wreaking havoc on traditional media. Companies still need to advertise their products and eyeballs are continuing to flock to the web. Bang for the buck and big metrics make web media undeniably compelling.
- The Future Gets Hot The present stinks and people will turn their attention elsewhere. While many will pine for a return to the past they will be forced to look ahead. The doom and gloom of the economic meltdown and global warming combined with the incredible pace of technological change provide a fertile backdrop for projection. ABC's 2100, Discovery's 2057 and plenty of content about the next decade will push this meme to the forefront. Sweet.
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Bill Gates is publicly betting on accelerating change.
Changes in software and computing over the next 10 years
will be “very substantial” and will permeate all facets of life,
Gates told a crowd of about 1,100 people during a Northern Virginia
Technology Council breakfast in Washington, D.C. Computers and
software have changed how people take photographs and purchase
music, but other industries will be affected just as much in coming
years, he said. (source, IDG News
Service)
Furthermore, the always smart but suddenly
super-progressive former Microsoft Chairman predicts that
internet TV, new interfaces, digital textbooks and virtual worlds
will see big growth and serve as major catalysts.
Television will be married with the Internet, allowing for
personalized news and commercials. People will watch more of their
home movies on their TV screens, and TV sets and computers will be
increasingly connected. Television will be an “utterly different
thing,” he said.
“Computer users will have more options for inputting
information beyond the mouse and keyboard. Speech and handwriting
recognition software will gain in popularity. Computers will move
off the desktop, with speech recognition and motion-sensing cameras
allowing users to control screens embedded into desktops or
whiteboards.”
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Online book publisher Lulu.com has a great look at past future predictions in its 'Paleo-Futures' storefront:
The booklet 2063 A.D. (Free PDF download; $25.30 print) was published by General Dynamics Astronautics, and placed into a time capsule in July of 1963.
Only 200 copies were ever printed. The 50 page book contains predictions by scientists, politicians, astronauts and military commanders about the state of space exploration in the year 2063.
As you'd suspect, given General Dynamic's business, there are many predictions about space travel, lunar bases and cheap energy resources. (So there is still time yet for their forecasts to come true!)
Lulu's edition is a reprint made from scans of the original 1963 book.
If you like this type of historical futures also check out the blog Paleo Future
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